Preview #3 - Northern Colorado

After a unnecessarily long hiatus, the continuation of the Big Sky Preview carries on with Northern Colorado:

Northern Colorado (Great West Conference)
'05 Record (4-7, 0-5)
'05 Rating - C-
Starters returning: 6 off, 8 def, 1 spec
Letterwinners returning/lost: ??/??

2005 Review:
The 2005 season marked an improvement in what has been a fairly rough (yet expected) transition for the Bears from DII ranks to those of D1. While an improvement, the Bears still finished just 4-7, and 0-5 in a pretty tough GWF Conference. It would also mark the final season for head coach Kay Dalton, who would be relieved of his duties at the end of the bleak season. The Bears would struggle mightily on the road, losing all 6 contests, but would be a very respectable 4-1 at home. Key weaknesses for this Bear squad would be run defense and scoring defense. While only giving up slightly over 200 yards per game in the air, they would give up nearly 180 yards per game on the ground, 4th in the Great West, and 27 TDs on the ground, worst in the league. The main factor in the Bears secondary success was the play of S Reed Doughty, who landed a contract with the Redskins this offseason. He would lead the team in tackles with 159, over 50 more than the next closet player. Senior quarterback Nick Hager had a decent season, throwing for 1665 yards, 17 TDs and 11 INTs to finish third in the league in passing yards, partly in play to two very talented WRs, Andy Birkel and Cory Sleeth. The ground game also shined, combing for over 1800 yards, 1034 of which belonged to Junior sensation Andre Wilson, despite only playing in 9 games. But the combined TD output of the passing and running games would equal the total number of TDs given up by the run defense alone, 27. Unfortunately for UNC, this is a fairly inopportune time to join the Big Sky as the Sky is transitioning from a bombs away league into a power running one.

Key Losses: S Reed Doughty, QB Nick Hager, OL Shaun Farner, OL Bradley Forbush, CB Greg Gebhardt, LB Jake Duren
Key Players Returning: RB Andre Wilson, WR Andy Birkel, LB Joe Kenney, DL Matt West, DB Matt Thomas, DB Sirwestly Williams, LB Sam Lewis, RB Patrick Ealey, C Matt Sens, OL Jake Gable
Transfers: DL Nasseer Ghafur (Compton CC), K David Dyches (Nebraksa), TE Brian Barmann (Missouri), WR Cory Fauver (Adams State), DB Will Granger (U. of South Dakota), LB Asa Matthews (Butler CC), DB J.V. Vails (Otero JC)

2006 Outlook:

Offense:
With a new coach and a new system, the offensive might struggle early on. First year head coach Scott Downing brings his multiple-pro offense to Greeley. And to help the transition, the Bears return several talented players that could benefit from this transition. Andre Wilson returns for his senior season, and looks to build from his performance from a year ago, where he rushed for 1034 yards and 6 TDs. Last year he caught 13 balls for 69 yards, but look for that number to increase in a multiple-pro scheme. Oh, and did I mention those numbers were in just 9 games? This is a top-notch back who could possibly lead the Sky in rushing at the end of the year, especially with the tragic loss of Lex Hilliard for the season. If Wilson can get loose, expect that to open the passing game up, leading to another big season for senior to be Andy Birkel. Birkel hauled in 50 passes for 907 yards and 10 TDs last season, his first as a Bear after spending two seasons at Nebraska. He is a talent at wideout and should look to break the 50 yard reception barrier once again. The rest of the WR corp is fairly green. They return only 2 receivers who made catches from last year, a combined 20 receptions. Zac Carlson will have to step up his play from a year ago, where he played in 11 games but hauled in just 15 receptions, third best on the team. Also gone is Nick Hager, the leading passer from a year ago. T.J. Swanson saw the most action last year, playing in 5 games throwing for 538 yards and 4 scores along with 4 INTs. He will be challenged by Cody Stone who saw action in 3 games last year, redshirt freshman Brian Wiedeman, and junior Dominic Breazeale. A fairly green offensive line will have to step up and make room for Wilson and keep defenders off the new QB for the Bears to run a successful new scheme in their first year in the tough Big Sky Conference.

Grade - C+

Defense:
The Bears lost a big blow in losing their #1 and #2 tacklers from last year. Jake Duren left the team, he transferred to a IA school. You don't hear that very often. The #1 tackler, Reed Doughty, was picked up in the NFL draft, and was one of the best defensive players the school has ever seen. The Bears do return a solid group on defense, however, but will have to step up the fill the holes left by Duren and Doughty. Joe Kenney returns after being 3rd on the team in tackles, and will be filling in for Duren. Downing has been high on the sophmore in fall practice so far. Sam Lewis had a solid year in 2005, and is going to be called upon more this year. Perhaps the most talented portion of the Bears is the secondary. Replacing Doughty will be tough, but returning are starters Matt Thomas, Sirwestly Williams, Jason Hildenbrand and Aaron Henderson. Downing has applauded the play of Thomas, Henderson and Hildenbrand, and seems to think that Hildenbrand is a vocal leader in the secondary. The Bears LB and DB corps return a solid 7 INTs from last year, and can improve upon that number this year. The DL also returns plenty of veterans in Matt West, Vinny Pallone and Jacob Carlson, who all saw actions in every game last year, and combined for 3 sacks and 14 tackles for loss. Also impressive in scrimmage is redshirt freshman DE Jake Ducket, who has made a couple sacks in the fall practices. Overall this is a group with enough veteran players and potentially talented newcomers that could finish in the top half of the Sky in defense.

Grade - C+

Overall Grade - C

Final Thoughts:
The Bears are not used to seasons like last. This is a proud program with a winning tradition, and they are doing everything in their power to return to that glory. While I do not think they will find in this year, they did make a solid hiring in Scott Downing and he should take this team and turn them into contenders for league crowns in years to come. But a new coach, a new scheme in a new conference does not bode well for this Bears squad, who may never find a rhythm in 2006. I look for them to finish in the bottom half, if not the very bottom. If they can come together and learn the scheme quicker than expected, they could finish middle of the pack, which would be a great accomplishment from a team that didn't win a conference game a year ago.