Big Sky Preview - Week 6

Last week saw 3 of the 4 games lost at home. Eastern fell in the waning moments to Sac, NAU fell to a ferocious Bobcat attack, and the Vikings were bested by a stingy Griz defense. Only Weber came away victorious on their home field, and that was only a 5 point game.

Biggest Win : UM
Biggest Loss : NAU

My power rankings through week 5:
1. Montana
2. Portland State
3. Weber State
4. Montana State
5. Northern Arizona
5. Sacramento State
6. Idaho State
7. Eastern Washington
8. Northern Colorado

Only PSU and UM have looked good so far - the league is either down this year, or teams haven't found solid replacements for their gamebreakers of last year just yet. A lot of new faces in the Sky this year.

This week, there is a good chance that every home team may lose.

Idaho State @ Northern Colorado
- Where is this Idaho State team that was so hyped at the beginning of the season? The offense has been pretty impressive, however. Quarterback Matt Gutierrez is in a very close 3rd place in yards thrown (34 yards seperate the top 3) despite playing in one less game, but has thrown 6 INTs with his 8 TDs. Running back Josh Barnett leads the league in rushing yards per game. So why the 1-3 start? Turnovers and defense. They are -1 in turnover and give up 31 points per game. The Bengals travel to Northern Colorado, who has started showing signs of life undfer first year head coach Scott Downing. They beat Texas State on the road, played Western Illinois fairly tough, and then played Weber pretty tough on the road as well. Running back Andre Wilson has 435 yards so far, but is coming off back-to-back 130+ day performances, and looks to find another one this week against a team that is giving up 130 per game on the ground. The Bears will have to find a passing game to be sucessful in this one. I talked about the turnover battle for ISU, but it is even worse for NoCo. The Bears will have to be sucessful running the ball early, which may open the passing game up. The Bears have fumbled the ball 7 times and threw 8 interceptions so far, and will have to play much better than that if they wanted to beat this ISU squad. The Bears are improving, and will keep it close it what will be a high scoring affair in Greeley.
What to watch: Andre Wilson will get 25 carries, but will it be enough to control the clock and minimize turnovers?
- 28-24

#3 Montana @ Eastern Washington
- After last week's victory over Portland State, Montana has proven they are currently cream of the crop in the Big Sky. The Griz are leading the Big Sky in offensive points per game, and Reggie Bradshaw has found the endzone 5 times this season, replacing Payton finalist Lex Hilliard. The Grizzlies are plus 1 in the turnover margin, and face a team that has thrown for the most interceptions so far. EWU quarterback Matt Nichols is just a freshman, but has shown signs of a promising future this season so far, even though his stats won't show it (starts against two very good IA teams). The Eagles have a solid front 5, and a good running back in Ryan Coles. But it has been a very bleak season for the Eagles, dropping games at home vs DII Central Washington and were also victims in the demise of Sacramento's States 19 game road losing streak. Two years ago, this game was decided by a blocked field goal, in Montana's favor. I don't see this one being near that close. The Grizzlies defense is as good as ever this year, and the Eagles have the worst offense they have fielded for at least 3 years. The Grizzly linebacking corp will pressure Nichols all day, and Nichols isn't very good when hassled. If he has time, he can pick you apart (then again, what QB can't?), but the Griz won't let him. The Griz secondary will also lead to pressure sacks, lead by CB Quinton Jackson. Offensively, the Griz should be able to move at will against a defense that gives up less than 200 yards a game in the air, but is last in run defense. The Griz are a very balanced team this year, and Eastern doesn't have the defensive personnel to stop them.
What to watch: Matt Nichols is certainly having growing pains, but has shown glimpses of how good he can be. If he performs well the Eags may be able to hang.
- 38-13

Weber State @ Sacramento State
- Well, this statement hasn't been said for a very long time - "The Hornets are coming off a road win..." That is because they haven't won on the road for 19 straight games, a streak dating back till 2002. Now that they have that proverbial monkey off their back, how will they respond? I wasn't able to view the EWU/Sac game, but the box score indicates Sac scored twice in the last 3:36 to pull out the one point victory. They won't be able to pull out another miracle against McBride's Wildcats. Weber State is first in the league in total defense (yards), and second in scoring defense. While the offense has yet to get on track, the defense has been winning ballgames for them. This the perfect week to figure out what has been causing the offensive struggles in Ogden. Quarterback Ian Pizzaro has seen limited action this year; most of the snaps have been taken by Shawn Woods, who has not found his stride. With 4 INTs to 3 TDs, the Wildcats passing game has produced just 138 yards per game, but their running game hasn't been any more productive, at just 106 yards per game. But freshman running back Trevyn Smith has rushed for 455 yards in just 4 games, and is looking very promising for the Cats. Sac, per usual, has a talented group of players that can never seem to put it together. Marcel Marquez played better against EWU (187 passing yards in the second half), but still has a long way to go to be a productive QB in this league. I think Weber spoils the Hornets Homecoming.
What to watch: Trevyn Smith is making a case for freshman of the year, with two 150+ days under his belt already.
- 24-17

GAME OF THE WEEK:
#15 Portland State @ Montana State
- Even though Portland State fell at home last week to the Griz, their defense has been playing outstanding all year, and played well in that game as well. They are only giving up 17.6 points per game, and that includes two games against IA foes. Linebacker Adam Hayward has been a monster, racking up 48 tackles, 8 for loss, 4 sacks, two forced fumbles, two pass breakups and a fumble recovery so far. PSU also held the Grizzlies to just 1-10 third down conversions. With QB Sawyer Smith still out, Colorado transfer Brian White was thrust into the game midway through the second quarter, and played pretty well considering he had only been in the system for a week. But if Smith is healthy (no one is sure), he will start. Otherwise White will get his first start in I-AA, and I doubt he would like to lose to the Bobcats twice in one year with two different teams. While the Viks defense has been solid, the Bobcats offense has been... unpredictable. Last week they gashed NAU's depleted secondary for 348 passing yards, and for good measure decided to rush for 211 more. Michael Jefferson set Bobcat receiving records, grabbing 12 balls for 239 yards and a score. A good matchup is to be found between Jefferson and Dominic Dixon, the leading CB in a talented Viking secondary. Good news for Bobcats fans, however, as wideout Josh Lewis is expected to return to the lineup this week, giving hot-and-cold quarterback Cory Carpenter another weapon. Along with his return, S Ryan Force and DE Aaron Papich (both all-conference) return to the lineup this week. But there is also good news for Viking fans, as Mu'Ammar Ali is expected to see some action, his first as a Viking. This game favors the Vikings, as their defense may be the best the Bobcats have faced this year, and the Bobcats have been playing awful at home. The Cats are fresh off a top25 victory on the road at NAU, and will be playing in front of a sell out crowd for homecoming. But I think the Vikings defense is going to be too strong for the struggling Bobcat offense, but I don't think the Viking offense is going to romp the Cats defense, either. This game could get ugly, but I think the Cats play with a lot of heart but come up short at home.
What to watch: True freshman Aaron Mason got his first collegiate start last week at NAU, and it was a doosy. He rushed 24 times for 192 yards and 2 TDs, and will have to have at least 100 yards this week to keep the Cats in it.
- 27-17